Optimism Bias in Firearm-Related Risk Perceptions

This survey study assesses the perceptions of California adults about the safety and risk of personal firearm use or access vs firearm use or access by others.


Introduction
Optimism bias, the perception that favorable events are more likely and adverse events less likely to happen to oneself vs similar others, is common across numerous health and safety topics. 1In the case of firearms, research suggests that members of households with firearms are, as a group, less likely to worry about sustaining a firearm injury than members of households without guns 2 despite evidence that firearms in homes elevate firearm injury risk. 3However, it remains unclear whether within-individual firearm-related risk perceptions vary depending on whether safety and risk are evaluated for themselves or for others."if you were to carry a gun in public" and "if everyone who legally owned a gun could carry it in public," would that make their neighborhood "safer" or "more dangerous.""It depends" and "don't know" were also response options (discussed elsewhere 4 ).
We used standard descriptive techniques and weighted repeated-measures multinomial logistic regression to assess within-individual differences in risk perceptions of firearm ownership and carrying for themselves and for others, overall and by firearm ownership status.All statistical tests were 2-tailed, with P < .05indicating significance.Analyses were performed between April 2020 and September 2021, using Stata 15.1 (StataCorp LLC).

Results
Of 5232 panel members invited to participate, 2558 completed the survey (49% completion rate).
Regardless of gun ownership status, respondents were significantly more likely to say guns made their own home safer than to say guns in others' homes made their neighborhood safer.Conversely, respondents were significantly more likely to perceive guns in others' homes as more dangerous than guns in their own home.

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JAMA Network Open | Public Health
Optimism Bias in Firearm-Related Risk Perceptions Compared with their beliefs about firearms at home, respondents less often said that carrying a gun in their neighborhood made it safer; no significant differences were observed between perceptions of safety for themselves vs others (Table 2).Only nonowners in households without guns were significantly more likely to report that gun carrying by others made their neighborhood more dangerous than their own gun carrying.

Discussion
This general population survey extends prior research 5 on risk perceptions among gun owners by demonstrating that regardless of gun ownership status, individuals evaluate the benefits conferred and risks imposed by household firearm ownership more favorably for themselves than for others in their neighborhood, signifying optimism bias.Only nonowners in households without guns showed optimism bias in their assessment of gun carrying.
Limitations of this survey study may include social desirability bias and limited generalizability beyond California, which has relatively stringent gun laws, especially regarding gun carrying.
Nonetheless, research on other health and safety issues has shown that optimism bias affects whether individuals support and engage in precautionary policies and practices. 1,6Thus, to inform prevention strategies, future research should examine whether and how optimism bias affects behaviors associated with firearm injury risk, such as firearm storage.

Table 2 .
Perceptions of Safety and Risk of Gun Carrying for Self and for Others, by Gun Ownership Status (N = 2558) a Column percentages may not sum to 100% because refusals (<1% of respondents) are not shown.

Table 1 .
Perceptions of Safety and Risk of Household Gun Ownership for Self and for Others, by Gun Ownership Status (N = 2558)